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    My AI Rube Goldberg Machine by @ttunguz

    Venture Capitalist at Theory

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    2 minute read / Oct 29, 2024 /

    My AI Rube Goldberg Machine

    In yesterday’s post, I calculated the profitability of public software companies. To calculate these figures, I built a little Rube Goldberg machine.

    I didn’t download the data into Excel. Instead, I complexified things by sending the analysis to 4 AIs to see if they would agree.

    The inspiration : many companies have used Amazon’s Mechanical Turk to crowdsource tasks, & pick a consensus answer across three workers to improve accuracy.

    Why not try this across 4 AI workers instead?

    4 robots with flags Prompt : “calculate the average net income margin and cash flow from ops margin from this data set” plus the data set. Note that CFOM isn’t a simple average but requires dividing cash flow from ops by revenue beforehand.

    Model NIM, % CFOM, %
    Claude 4.99 27.31
    Gemini -9.29 16.2
    Perplexity -8.67 14.4
    ChatGPT - 9.29 1,433.01. / 14.9%
    My Analysis -9.29 16.2

    Gemini scored top marks for tabulating correctly on both columns. ChatGPT did well with NIM but “forgot” to complete the additional division step, which I corrected with a follow up, but still not the right figure. The other systems missed the mark altogether.

    It would be a mistake to draw any broad conclusions from my little experiment.

    But in this case, consensus doesn’t yet work as a strategy which means I still need to double check calculations myself.

    At some point, AI will mechanize the illusory Mechanical Turk & I’ll restart my Rube Goldberg math machine with confidence.


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